What comes after cord-cutting?

About five years ago, I met with a streaming TV executive who cautioned that everything in this business is cyclical.

This was during the boom times for services such as Netflix and Hulu, which had been chasing growth with aggressive prices and ballooning content catalogs. The exec’s implication were that the high times would eventually end, discontent with streaming would grow, and the cycle of TV disruption would start all over again.

I’ve been thinking about all that a lot lately, as our once-beloved streaming services make their heel turn with higher prices, more ads, and disappearing content. The era of discontent is here, and while there’s plenty you can do about it now, we can also start thinking about what might come next.

I have a handful of theories.

Free TV takes over

Last fall, a study by the marketing data and analytics company Kantar found that free streaming services are growing faster than paid ones, and it’s easy to understand why: Services such as Pluto TV, Tubi, and the Roku Channel offer vast movie and TV catalogs along with round-the-clock linear channels, and in most cases you don’t even need an account to start streaming.

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Meanwhile, subscription services are devaluing their own products by introducing ads, removing content, charging extra for better video quality, and even enforcing new account restrictions. At some point, subscribers might start to wonder what exactly they’re paying for.

Sure, Pluto and Tubi don’t have all the original programming that the paid services do, but remember that Netflix kicked off the cord-cutting trend not with originals, but with older content licensed from elsewhere. Now, the premium streamers are licensing their own originals out to free services, which allow you to binge-watch reruns without all the hassles of a paid subscription.

Sling’s Freestream DVR offers a glimpse at what might come next. If the free streamers can offer a semi-premium, ad-free experience akin to what Netflix used to be, it could lead to a new wave of cord-cutting on more expensive alternatives.

A new Netflix emerges

In 2013, Netflix’s then-chief content officer Ted Sarandos (who’s now co-CEO) famously said the company’s goal was “to become HBO faster than HBO becomes us.” The idea was that Netflix would become a haven for TV auteurs and a must-have premium service for consumers, all without the baggage of cable.

But as The Verge’s Alex Cranz astutely pointed out last week, Netflix is now becoming more like cable itself, with content decisions increasingly dictated by what will drive the most ad revenue. Its 10-year deal to carry WWE Monday Night Raw—a longtime cable staple—is the latest example. The industry’s pivot to ads is also rankling creators, who never envisioned their shows with commercial breaks.

All this leaves room for a new streamer to become Netflix in the same way that Netflix became HBO. The notion of a streaming service focused on ad-free, prestige programming suddenly seems disruptive again. (Apple TV+ has a decent shot at it, but the field’s open for alternatives.)

Scrappier cord-cutting makes a comeback

When I ditched cable TV more than 15 years ago, the streaming options were pretty slim. There was Netflix and Hulu, but the latter only worked in a web browser, so I had to connect my laptop to the TV with an HDMI cable. An antenna was also essential—rather than the nice-to-have element it is now—and renting DVDs was the most economical way to watch certain shows without pirating them. (And if we’re being honest, I did a little of that back then as well.) Even then, you’d get used to simply not watching some things because they weren’t available without cable.

As streaming companies adopt some of cable’s worst tendencies, perhaps we’ll see a return to that earthier form of cord-cutting. That’s not to say the masses will start spinning up media servers full of DVD rips, video downloads, and over-the-air recordings, but it’d be neat if more folks discovered the hobby. The fact that piracy is on the rise again speaks volumes.

Everyone just watches YouTube and TikTok instead

Cord-cutting was in large part a generational trend, driven by younger viewers who never felt much attachment to specific cable channels. In the same way, the next big shift may come from an even younger audience that doesn’t consume as much TV-style programming as their elders.

YouTube, after all, is already the most-watched streaming service even when you only count TV time, and TikTok is its fastest-growing threat. Young folks are spending hours per day in these apps, which doesn’t leave much time for traditional TV viewing. Just as TV networks had to cater to cord-cutters with new streaming services, the streaming services may need to adapt to an audience that’s otherwise happy to live without them. And thus the cycle begins afresh.

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